Development Trends and Opportunities to 2030

Washington, DC (January 2013) — More than $20 trillion will be spent on reshaping America’s metropolitan areas between 2010 and 2030, which presents us with a tremendous opportunity to create the kinds of neighborhoods Americans actually want.  In his new book Reshaping Metropolitan America: Development Trends and Opportunities to 2030, Arthur C. Nelson, a leading expert on urban demographic trends and Presidential Professor of City & Metropolitan Planning at the University of Utah, breaks down the demographic trends and changing preferences driving the way we should be designing the built environment.

More than half of Americans want to live in a smart growth community, and only a quarter want to live on a conventional suburban lot, but current housing supply doesn’t match these demands. Nelson unpacks the trends America is facing and shows how planners and developers can meet changing needs over the next two decades—all while making our urban areas more sustainable and livable for future generations by increasing density, walkability, and the diversity of uses.

Reshaping Metropolitan America advocates for a balanced approach to housing. Rather than try to force small-lot housing on everyone, Nelson argues that planners should offer a broad range of options, so that those who want to live in large-lot homes away from urban centers can do so, and those who want walkable communities can do so as well. He explains that it’s particularly important to think ahead when planning residential buildings because they have a lifespan more than 3.5 times longer than non-residential buildings.

But Reshaping Metropolitan America is about more than just housing. Nelson also offers important insight into how employment trends will affect the physical fabric of the country and vice versa. He shows how job trends follow population, so while we will see an increase of about 20% in population by 2030, we will also see an increase jobs by about 30% as the country recovers from the Great Recession and a larger proportion of the population looks to join the workforce. But he also contends that in more densely populated areas, communities see more jobs, higher incomes, and lower unemployment so that doubling population density increases economic productivity by about 15%.

In this thorough and detailed book, which is complemented by an online, searchable database, Nelson presents an index for reshaping America and an agenda for reforming outdated regulations and programs.

Reshaping Metropolitan America stands apart from other books that discuss the need for creating higher density, walkable communities by providing the indisputable hard data behind the argument. A must-have tool for practicing planners and real estate developers—in the field and in the classroom – this book is key to understanding how we can get from where we are now to what the market of the future wants.
 

Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, FAICP, is Presidential Professor of City & Metropolitan Planning at the University of Utah where he is also Director of the Metropolitan Research Center and is Co-Director of the Master of Real Estate Development Program.